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Measuring the Financial Risk of Covid-19 - three months on

Risk.net has teamed up with RiskThinking.AI to measure the financial impact of the Covid-19 outbreak.

This is our second Covid-19 survey; to view the results of the first, and the economic scenarios generated using readers’ responses, please click here.

We are in uncharted territory; already, it is clear that scenarios drawn from previous crises are of little help in making sense of current market dynamics. Yet our decision-making today is almost entirely guided by our attempts to forecast the future.

So, we want your help. We are looking to harness the collective wisdom of our audience in helping frame the future uncertainty we will all experience when dealing with Covid-19. We are seeking a diversity of opinions, and yours is important.

Our goal is to use the results of this survey to generate scenarios on combinations of the factors surveyed here, to help you measure and make sense of the financial impacts of Covid-19 on your business. The results will be published on Risk.net. All responses will remain completely anonymous. Those who take part will receive early, detailed previews of the scenarios constructed from the data.

The survey will take only a few minutes of your time. Thank you for taking part.
1. Please indicate the region in which you work primarily: *This question is required.
2. Please indicate your job function: *This question is required.
3. Please indicate your type of organisation:  *This question is required.
We will not publish or disclose your details to any third party and we will not retain any data after publication. All individual responses will remain strictly confidential and anonymous. Please provide a business email address.  This question requires a valid email address.
4. Do you believe that climate change will have at least as big an impact on your firm’s risk profile as Covid-19? *This question is required.
5. Most G20 countries are in lockdown or easing lockdown slowly trying to stem the flow of the Covid-19. This lockdown has virtually shut down entire economies, with the service industries and households living on the brink particularly badly hit. Even beyond the lockdown period, without a vaccine, the restrictions on workplaces and fear of another lockdown will pervade.

How long do you think it will be before we have a vaccine that could be used on entire populations? *This question is required.
6. What impact do you think the coronavirus will have on the following financial benchmarks over the next six months, relative to US market close on Monday June 22? *This question is required.Please use the sliders below to give us your opinion.
EUR/USD ($1.12)
% drop
% gain
CDX IG 5Y INDEX (76.54)The CDX Index tracks the CDS spreads of 125 investment-grade corporates. A lower reading on the index indicates a decline in perceived credit risk.
% drop
% gain
The S&P 500 (3117.86)
% drop
% gain
7. What will the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond be on September 22? (June 22: 0.71%)
-4%
+2%
8. What will the rate of US GDP growth be for the second quarter of 2020? (Forecast: -11.8% contraction)
-50%
+5%